What will happen to deposits in 2018
Despite the fact that the Russian economy is experiencing far from the best of times, and the Central Bank is actively working to clear the banking sector, the Russians still trust commercial banks and are ready to carry out supplementary operations, placing money at interest to generate additional income. However, a bank deposit is the most reliable tool that in 2018 you can use to improve your financial condition with minimal risk of financial losses. This is largely due to the fact that the interests of investors are protected by the Deposit Insurance System, and in the event of bankruptcy or revocation of a license from a bank, they can count on compensation of funds within 1.4 million rubles, regardless of the currency and the term of placement.
To understand what will happen to deposits in 2018, one should proceed from what the key rate will be, which is set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. And, judging by the fact that over the past year its value has been revised only downwards, depositors can hardly rely on over-profitable offers from commercial banks.Moreover, this trend will continue in the long term, therefore, it will be possible to qualify for more favorable rates only as part of special offers, promotions or programs designed for individual groups of consumers (for example, for pensioners).
The reduction in retail lending may also trigger a further decline in deposit rates. The decrease in the level of solvency of the population, new legislative restrictions of the Central Bank and the growth of overdue for all types of obligations restrain bankers from issuing loans in large quantities, as was the case during the boom in consumer lending. Now banks analyze applications more carefully, refuse to issue money more often and sell distressed debt portfolios faster, which affects the value of their assets. In such conditions it is possible to stay afloat only at the expense of the funds of investors placed at low interest rates.
A further reduction in interest rates is what awaits investors in 2018, as experts are sure. According to their forecast, for ruble deposits with placement of 12 months without the possibility of partial withdrawal and replenishment, it will be possible to get the maximum income in the range of 7.5-8% per annum.For short-term deposits, the yield will be no more than 7-7.5% per annum. But large banks offer much more “modest” rates, which can be seen on the example of Sberbank, which places money at a maximum of 4.2% per annum.
The proposal to make a deposit on too favorable terms should alert the investor who wants to get additional income. If the rate offered by the bank is significantly different from the market average, this may indicate that it has faced a deficit of liabilities and is trying to raise money without carrying out credit activities, which is necessary to pay depositors interest.
The value of short-term deposits
Answering the question of what will happen with deposits in 2018, according to experts, one can not fail to mention the new trend of the Russian market - high demand for short-term deposits, which consumers have begun to actively discover. This is facilitated by the new policy of banks that do not want to attract money at current rates for the long term, as they fear that in the future this may turn out to be extremely unprofitable due to the high probability of a further reduction in the Central Bank's key rate.
Depositors are also willing to draw up deposits for up to 3 months, which is much more profitable given the current rates for such programs and the lack of the need to terminate the contract ahead of time if the money invested is required for unforeseen expenses. As a result, in the first quarter of 2018, the volume of such deposits in national currency increased by 0.26%, and in foreign currency - by 1.33%. And banks that had not previously offered such terms for placing funds added short-term deposits to their deposit lines.
According to the regulator, in the first 3 months of the current year, the average rate actively grew in the segment of short-term deposits: from January its value increased from 4.8% to 5%, while on deposits up to 12 months the average rate dropped by 0.07 percentage points, and in the segment of long-term deposits (1-3 years) - by 1.11 percentage points.
According to experts, a kind of bias in favor of short-term deposits will persist throughout 2018. It is expected that by the beginning of 2019, the Central Bank will move to a neutral rate of 6-6.5%, which means that commercial banks will be able to attract public funds for a longer period without fear of further reducing the key rate.But to expect an explosive growth in the profitability of deposits in any case is not worth it, since there are no prerequisites for this.