Population of Russia and its changes in 2019
As we remember, the population of Russia reached its maximum only in 1993 - it was 148.6 million people, after which came the long 16 years of the demographic hole from which the country still, with varying success, is trying to get out.
A lot is being done for the near and distant future forecasts on the dynamics of changes in the country's population: from extremely optimistic, saying that on one seventh of the planet’s land by 2036 up to 154 million people will live, to rather sad ones promising a decline to 138 million.
Despite the fact that any of these growth scenarios is based only on an increase due to migrants, but not on a natural increase, many tend to see this as a positive sign.
Although, of course, it is not known whether Russia will become so attractive for visitors, or in their former homelands it will become so bad that it will seem like a paradise to them ... Whatever it may be,The demographic statistics of the last years in the country is so interesting and indicative that on its basis one can draw a lot of remarkable conclusions and build real programs for action. Not to mention how useful it is sometimes to think about how many of us will live in this earth in the future. Well, let's try to collect a variety of opinions on this matter and make our own forecast of the population in 2019 - as impartially as possible.
Rosstat and other official sources
Beginning in 2009, the population of Russia began to grow slowly, according to Rosstat. Due to this, the level of 142.7 million people managed to reach 144.5 million. 2014 showed a sharp, spasmodic growth due to the fact that Russian statistics began to take into account the population of the Crimea, which by that time amounted to no less than 2.34 million.
In percentage terms, only in 2016, Russians increased by 0.2%. But, the birth rate at the same time, which is typical, fell to 5.3 thousand people - by 2.6% there were less newborn babies than it was in 2015. At the same time, there were 15% less registered marriages, but the number of divorces decreased only slightly, by only 0.5%.
At the same time, the Ministry of Labor complains that from 2006 to 2016, the number of able-bodied people in the country decreased by 7 million - now 83 million people are officially employed.
Accordingly, all the profits declared by Rosstat are exclusively demographic ballast, from an economic point of view, from retirees. Not children - in any case, and this is very bad, because the birth rate is not discussed here in any way.
At the same time, the decline in the standard of living did not become so catastrophic as to entail a serious increase in mortality. As for the flow of migrants, in 2017 in the Russian Federation it reached its minimum value over the past seven years (about 0.2 million) - such low rates were only in 2010.
What awaits the country in the near future?
Migrants - the main engine of the demographic positive in Russia - will have to apply for citizenship in the amount of 0.35-0.45 million people annually to ensure the appetites of the optimistic forecast. And most likely, the inhabitants of disadvantaged Central Asian countries, immigrants from China under existing agreements and their own former citizens who were disappointed in emigration are meant.
Quantitative distribution, of course, in this perspective, statistics do not yet give an opportunity to assess the quality of the “offspring”, but even with such a picture it is still considered that by 2036 the working-age population will be less by 4 million people than it is now. That, of course, is not the best impact on budget loads.
But, although there are no specific numbers of migration sources, one thing is clear that mainly young, talented and promising people leave abroad for good education and a decent standard of living. The majority of people come from poorly educated people, unskilled workers, etc.
In order to at least somehow equalize the qualitative composition of growth, even in a very distant future, they are trying in every way to stimulate fertility, including maternity capital programs, preferential loans and social support, but, the above statistics show, so far no progress has been made in this direction Did not work out.
And, sadly, neither in 2019, nor later, reports that the number of children in the country has increased, one does not have to wait, of course, until qualitative changes are made in terms of improving the standard of living, stabilizing the political situation, etc.
Moreover, the same Rosstat is far from encouraging by the fact that only in 2019 alone will the decline in the birth rate be 6% compared to 2018, and then the tendency will only get worse until 2031. Now, in essence, according to this indicator, we are at the level of the early 90s with their mass emigration of national minorities, the impossible fall in the standard of living and other adverse factors.
The sad statistics, besides social and economic reasons, also has purely biological ones: the number of women of childbearing age in the country every 15-20 years decreases by 9-12%. At the same time, the number of mothers is not at all going to be compensated by the increase in children in families - on the contrary, now even less often even two children are given birth, not to mention deciding on having many children.
One of the reasons for the latter, of course, among other things, was the general civilizational change in planetary psychology, when it became completely different to the age of starting a family and having children, and how many there should be speaking about not so popular with us, of course, as in the west, but, nevertheless, having a place to be the movement “childfree”.
True, when, for example, in the same Italy, women tend to give birth to their first child lately far past thirty, then, to be honest, they can afford it. By that age, both the career has been made, and the capital has been saved up to stay at home and enjoy motherhood, yes, and the medicine is at such a level that it is no problem. Of course, that absolutely cannot be said about the current Russian situation. Not to mention what the abyss lies between the development of reproductive medicine here and there.
Who is to blame and what to do?
Summarizing all these joyless numbers and trends, yet, no matter what, I want to believe that something comparable in its importance to a real miracle will happen in the country, and the demographic situation will begin to take on features that our people can be rightly proud of. That population growth will not occur due to the escape of migrants to us from countries where it is even worse, but that we will be so attractive both in terms of the standard of living and the degree of human freedoms that we can compete on equal terms with the advanced states of the world. What we, as in Australia, will look askance at families,in which one or two children, as having many children is great, because the state can help the family to such an extent that it can easily afford it.
Not to mention that in any developed country, and now, even one working dad is almost always able to feed his family, even when his wife is sitting with children ... That our maternity hospitals will not be afraid of future moms, and the level of medicine will be in Israel, pre and postnatal technologies of which have long been known as a true world beacon ...
Yes, what really is there, to list everything that Russia needs to do, even to at least simply show the positive dynamics of the number - sustainable, and not by a misunderstanding, like joining new territories, refugees and the like - not to mention the quality of population growth, You can spend hours. But this list is not a reason to give up and let everything take its course, seeking comfort in another.